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Weekly and then confirm it in lower time frame, Daily and Hourly and enter is the same direction. Don't try to counter trade. The reason Trader's fail is because Most are too lazy to Back-test Improve upon mistakes. Sit with live charts, draw your supports, area of interest, enter the trade and see the results.
Do it as much as you can. Over an over Again. Trade more. Learn more. Make a trading journal. Write down why you entered, your target and the results. Write down what you learnt and what could be different.
Not maintaining trading journal means you're wasting your precious time. Make one now. There are no market experts. No-one for sure knows the future movements.
Don't trust anyone. I've seen the best traders being wrong. Only your experience will bring you luck and profits. Experts are irrelevant, your own experience, if you learn from them, will teach you. Best way to learn in to open charts, mark your levels, use your current knowledge and set entries. This is learning on steroids. Let the market give you feedback. Your only aim is to not stop and follow Risk management. You're Trading against PhDs in physics, against machines which can do millions of calculations every second, against the most secretive Algos.
Learn and then fight. I've complied all my tutorials for free here. The below assumptions apply only to trading and not investments. Study the examples in detail. Don't worry if you don't understand them, it's been explained in detail from the basics later on. This is called the stop loss level. Note- I personally exit stop loss manually to prevent fake stop outs due to volatility.
This is where ALL the beginner traders fail. Finding reversal levels to EXIT a trade in profit i. I have covered the topic in detail earlier but here are some examples. If you can participate in the market long enough while preserving your capital, you will generate enormous wealth just by doing it. How do we ensure profitability and survival even after being wrong so often?
This is explained below. Your aim is to survive with ease even when you're wrong. This will be done through Risk Management. Risk management will reduce all trading stress and prevent losing the capital.
You want to get rich without stress. I've shared my Masterclass on risk management. It's common sense, not rocket science. Follow it. Every time. I personally have blown my accounts because of not following risk management. Trading can only be learnt by doing it. You can read s of books on playing basketball but you won't truly learn it till you play. How to start? Learn the basics. And Practice, over and over again.
The more, the better. How much should you trade? As much as you can. More frequently and let the market give you a feedback. Participate in the market, let it give you feedback, be flexible with your opinions. Enter only when you have a Trading Trident established. The more you play, the better you get. Be sure to enter only on a Trading trident. Be sure to follow risk management and EXIT as soon as you find any reversal or invalidation. Repeat this a million times and that's all you need.
Follow the rules of Risk management to avoid any fear of losing capital. Learn to trade from beginner to advanced here. This is all you need and participate in the market.
Trade as often as you can. Let the market give you live feedback on your technique. The more frequently you trade, the more you learn. I hope you found the above thread useful. Please share it if you found it useful.
We will learn "High Probability Entry" setups in the next thread. Indicators are not entry signals but a statistical tool for comparison with the historical price. Here, the lowering of OBV and Volume has been used to confirm a short entry along with Prime movements. They are the building blocks of TA. There are many forms of graphs like bars, Heikin Ashi, Renko, Point and Figure, but for me, Candlesticks has worked the best.
Here is a tutorial on how to use. Candlesticks are a method to find demand and supply. I will be posting more tutorial on the same. They are useful for day trading and giving powerful entries. You can find a brief introduction about it here. I've already done a tutorial on them. See Chapter: Support And Resistance. There are 2 mostly used moving averages. Simple moving average or exponential. There are many traders who claim to have invented a secret moving average strategy.
Rather, they help us recognize a trend. Don't EVER make buying or selling decision based on moving averages strategy. Eg triple MA crossover strategy or 8,13,21,55 crossover strategy. They don't work in the long run. Use them as a trend indicator and for confirmations. You can use the moving average feature on trading view and see how they work as support and resistance. There are many built in indicator like the 3SMA indicator to work around with.
The best book for studying chart pattern is the encyclopedia by Thomas Bulkowski. You should start with studying triangles, flags, pennants, cup and handles, Adam and eve and master. Note- These coins are low liquid assets with daily volume lower than 20K. Throwing in BTC does the job to pump. I've been trading Bitcoin full time since Seen a lot of 'traders' burn their face.
You need a predefined, backtested and multi scenario system. Predefined - Your system tells you when to enter. You wait for an entry. You know when to exit. This is predefined. You don't enter anytime else. Backtested - Traditional market traders backtest for at least a decade. Anything else is unacceptable at best. Paper trading- Once your strategy has been backtested, you need to paper trader. At least for a month. There isn't enough skin in the game but this gives your real-world live insight into your system.
Only if you get successful in the spot market, think about moving to leveraged trading. Technical analysis and Stock trends. Edwards and Magee. Some might find it a dull books but it is valuable. Trading Price action trends by Al Brooks. Would be interesting for those who only rely on indicators. I have been a full-time trader for about 10 years now. First 3 years were spent in blowing up my account several times. You shouldn't be trading if you don't have a system which has been back tested for at least a few years worth of data or as long as the asset has existed.
Relying only on money management won't work. You need an asymmetric bet. A low probability system won't work in the long run, even with godly money management.
The answer is obviously no. Gambling is a low portability bet. Money management can't earn you consistently with a low probability system. There is no room for hard-work in trading.
Explanation- Trading should be calm, simple and a waiting game. Your system should tell you the entry and exit. You should not be breaking a sweat. If your system isn't there yet, don't trade. Before you start trading, paper trade the live market for a few months. There is no rush. You are not losing out on anything. Before you start day trading, trade spot for at least a month. It gets you used to the system and the volatility without the evils of leverage.
If you're leverage trading, a stop loss is a must. Have a look at this chary from 29th November No one expected this kind of range. Most new traders want to learn a method, a trick or a strategy. This won't ever work in the long run as the market changes. I can't tell you how many times I've to tweak my system.. All indicators except volume related are derived from price.
A study of price movement is superior to anything else. You need to learn that trends change very often. There is no shame in changing from a bullish bias to a bearish one. Today itself I felt like BTC could breakdown to But as time progressed, I made a long Entry at Fluidity in bias brings you frequent opportunities.
Don't ever hold onto a losing trade if there are no signs of reversal. Hopes and prayers don't work in trading. Get out of a losing trade ASAP. Market will give you enough opportunities. Change with the trend. I have never been able to catch the top and the bottom and have no interest nor the ability to do so. This lowers the number of entries that you will find but increases the profit probability of your trade.
There were some tips I had off of my head. Many traders better than me could teach you something a lot better, but this is what comes to my mind right now. A guy with a girl's pic as his profile photo messaged me and said it's ridiculous that I call you all my family, and advised against it.
I am going to take his advice and continue being ridiculous, my family. Here is the analysis of the short entry. Entry Exit The above chart explains the Entry.
Look how I entered after multiple confirmations. Exit was easy. I expected the previous lows to be tested after so many short confirmations and placed my bids there. The short went till range but I had my orders at itself. Could have been a lot more profit but wasn't looking to catch the bottom.
Analysis of the trade executed today. Without typos this time Entry- Exit - I was already in another Trade when the presented ascending triangle was forming. Basically, it's a pattern where the resistance keeps getting tested and new higher lows are formed constantly. Notice how, the chart above, the volume increased as soon as we bounced off the upward trending trend-line, forming a new higher low. This could be taken as a probable upward move incoming. After closing the then existing trade shares in twitter earlier, a new entry was made at levels.
Multiple confirmations taken into consideration to enter the trade mentioned in the chart. The price showed many retracements, consolidation, lowering of momentum at the resistance and retests.
This led to a belief of the uptrend being organic and not a temporary pump. I tweeted yesterday that we need to keep a close eye on these levels. The price action then taking place mimicked the sudden dump that took place on 9th May.
However, we didn't exist for the following reasons mentioned in the chart. A true test of patience it certainly was. Multiple confirmations for exit have been mentioned in the chart. Obviously now we know it wasn't a perfect exist but I followed my system.
The fake ascending triangle Breakout will be explained in a tutorial on triangles in future. This might be a tough and time-consuming read. There are a few new terms, you might have to Google a little bit eventually you will get it, upon repeated reading.
All the best. Note- This strategy will have a MUCH higher probability of success if basic Price action, volume and Candlestick pattern is kept in mind. I Will talk about the calculations to arrive at the indicators separately. They are reversal points based the historical prices. Go to the indicators tab and type 'Pivot point standard' The settings to be used have been disclosed in the pic below.
Note- You can choose your own settings but I have disclosed the ones I use. The settings for this indicator are already tweaked by the author. Note- I don't know the author hence not able to provide credit.
Sometimes, it filters out fake-outs with low volumes, hence being a powerful indicator. I have highlighted my VWAP settings below. Understanding of Price actions and practice over time will make this the most successful and Addictive strategy.
Fair distribution and Tokenomics. Founders must be either public OR have a big community if anonymous. Working website with history. No volume bots. If you're looking to hold, We will discuss 1. When to enter for holding. When to enter. After FA as mentioned in the above, We begin to find the entry. Jack D. Schwager has mentioned many times how he only uses TA to find entry for his investments. Volume around the Cross. EMA squeeze before the Cross.
Enter on Breakout candle crossing the high of previous candle. Volume must increase after EMA Cross breakout. Better if Breakout candle is an engulfing. We are looking for a bullish cross of the 13,21,50 and the EMA.
These are my personal settings and can be tweaked by anyone. But this is what I use. This doesn't always occur because very few people use this technique, but while the whales accumulate, you can see a little increase in volume. It means the MAs coming closer, illustrating an accumulation. This can suggest a change in trend in either direction.
If the volume is increasing during squeeze, it is most likes bullish. This is where true edge comes in play. The entry edge can only be gained with experience, failure and a lot of trying. Use volume for entry. Use PA for confirmation. This is not fool proof but gets better with experience. Wait for EMA squeeze. Look for volume on Accumulation. Find Cup and handle or rounding bottoms. Use PA for Confirmation. Exit on bearish cross-over. A request- PLEASE try it on as many charts as possible and share below if you find the above set-up in play on any coin.
Price increase with Volume Increase is bullish. Price increase with volume decrease is NOT bullish. Price decrease with volume increase is bearish.
Price decrease with volume decrease is NOT bearish. If there is price expansion with volume below the Average Volume OR If there is price contraction with volume below the average Volume. This should be taken as a sign of caution. Support Region Tested Several times. Price decreases with Increasing volume. Entry made on new Support break. I have explained how to use Volume to judge exiting a trade.
You can summarise the above and try them on Live charts via Paper trading. Make such entries to master volume. If the price goes low with a decrease in volume, it means there is a probability of the sell pressure ending. In this guide, we will only study about the technical aspect Charts to be kept in mind while taking a position in an Alt-Coin. The Best money is made in the Smaller Cap Alts by positioning yourself on a technical price trigger entry and holding for months. All the best trading Alt-coins.
I will try to share some good 10X projects on my telegram Telegram. Very common We. The price rise to the resistance. Retest 2. People find it extremely difficult to exit trades and find reversals. We will discuss Hammer in this thread.
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Here are my best trading lessons. If not, its an abnormal movement and traders should be cautious. This relation is explained in detail in the chart. Don't invest at the cost of ruining your life.
Understand the logic and memorise it. Your investment should always be an almost insignificant amount. If you lose it, it should hurt a bit but not ruin your life. Don't go all in. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
Watch live charts, draw your levels, then paper trade. Using leverage without spot experience is a crime. You cannot and will not survive in the long term without following the two tools of capital preservation.
Stop Loss. Risk Management. Both these tools are FAR more complicated than they sound. Read, understand and ONLY then trade. Don't try making quick trades by fighting the trend. Use the weekly time frame and the 50 day moving average to find the trend and trade only in the direction of the market. There are no good and bad assets. Don't get attached to a coin or a stock. Your aim is to make profits, to buy low and sell high.
Cardano is shit but I made good money there. Highs of RSI and Price movement don't align 6. Don't pray for a trade to go right. Don't hope. Harami, Engulfing, Doji.
Your aim is to leave the market ASAP. Once the trade goes the opposite direction, don't give control to the market and keep hoping. Start afresh. Cut your losses. Keep them small.. Don't trade if you don't have a planned entry, exit and invalidation point. Listening to opinions of others will always get you rekt. Don't even listen to me. YOU have to plan your entry, position size and invalidation points. Trading is easy, you don't need complicated tools and 5 monitors. The catch is, you need a plan.
When learning, trade a lot. A LOT. Trade with the trend, as many times a possible. Your methods need real market testing. Trade more, let the market give you feedback, as much as possible.
The only way to get better at free-throws is to keep practicing. Trading is the most rewarding profession, ever. You can't expect it to be easy. Journalise all trade. Take notes and keep learning. I have made tutorials for all topics here. It works. It's free. Using simple techniques will bring the best trading results. It's better to learn from other's mistakes than commit them. You can scroll through my twitter and telegram to find ALL the tutorials.
It will take some efforts but it's worth it. However, I want you to try the above concept for now on EMA for positional trading. In the next few days, we are going to learn to trade Bitcoin for profits. I will keep in mind to - Journalise the results. Keep it as short as possible. Making it completely comprehensible for extreme beginners. Before you learn to trade, we MUST know the true meaning of a few terms. I have written down the most important terms and tried to explain them in the simplest manner possible.
If you're a new trader, please go through them. People who already trade can refresh their understanding. There are several websites, I use tradingview.
Simple, easy and offers everything most people need. The basic free version is enough. Exchange- In terms of Crypto, a marketplace which allows buying and selling of Bitcoin or other. All beginners do it; they enter a trade without enough.
Total supply- The amount limit of coins that will ever exist. Supply limit of Bitcoin is 21 million. Bull is someone expecting the price to go higher, and bear is the opposite. Generally, happens when new investors enter the market. Reversals don't happen suddenly but after signs of: Bear market- A period where the prices are seeing a long term down trend leading to a sell off. See the chart below - Weakness in case of a breakdown. I've explained the relevant part needed for trading reversals.
There are infinite patterns that form at reversals but the main concepts remain the same. This completed reversal Leave a like if you liked it. Note- A Bull market can have many bearish cycles and vise versa as shown below. Market Cap: The market capitalisation of an Asset calculated by current supply of coins multiplied by CMP of one coin. Whole of an asset could be a bubble, or a market cycle could be a bubble. Here is a clear indication of a top in Bitcoin back in Day trading- Taking a position in the market, either buy or sell and exiting it the same day.
The reasons are explained in the chart. Swing trading- This method looks for buying and selling positions in a weekly range. Swing traders make my traders a week. Most of my trades are swing trades. Positional trading- The aim is to buy monthly lows and hold them for days, weeks or. This is a longer term trading time period.
Leverage- Refers to the extra amount of asset bought or sold, over your capital. Sites like Bitmex allow leverage as per your choice. Margin- The amount of funds required to open a leveraged trade. Long Position- This is a buy position buy with leverage. Both profit and loss in this case is multiplied by the leverage you take. Short Position- Exact opposite of Long Entry. You enter a short entry when you expect the. Shorting allows you to make money in a bear market.
Volatility- It is the percentage movement in price of an asset over a period. A balanced volatile. Traders look for predictable volatility. A very highly volatile or low volatile assets isn't considered good for trading. This is calculated by the actual capital employed in a trade and not In the previous tweet, we could have used volume and other indicators too but I just wanted to use the PA. Altcoin- All coins except Bitcoin.
This is extremely bullish. Bull trap- A technique used by market makers to buy a huge amount suddenly, spiking the price. This makes everyone else that this is a Breakout and everyone buys.
TOPS They market makers then sell enormous amounts, pushing the prices down, in turn liquidation A simple PA observation shows everyone else that had bought, producing a cascading effect of liquidations. Lower high being formed. Bear trap is just the opposite of the above for making the prices go higher in the end. Continuous test of support weakening 3. Spread-The difference between what the sellers are ready to sell at and what the buyers are ready to buy at.
There always exists a small spread on all exchange, the Higher the liquidity, the lower the spread. In the below situation, the spread is 10 dollars. See pic Below of an order book explaining the above terms.
We will study this in the next lessons. Walls: Extremely large orders at a range. Demand Zone- A zone with huge buy orders. This is determined through the heat map. Supply Zone- A zone with huge sell orders. Stop-Loss: Order that is triggered when the price goes below this point.
Used to cut losses. Liquidity- The measure of how actively the coin is being traded in the market. There could be several types of reversals. Uptrend- A price is said to be in an uptrend when it's making higher highs and higher lows. Distribution 2. Accumulation can be confined in a channel. Pattern reversals Channel, uptrend and Higher High and Higher lows are shown in the chart below.
Signs of guesses. Resistance being touched continuously. The more times resistance is touched, the weaker it becomes.
Downtrend--Opposite of uptrend, the prices here make lower highs and lower lows. Consolidation- A period where the price is ranging in a well-defined region. This is a period of. Correction- A correction is a fall in price after making a new peak or an upwards rally. Rally- An upward trend leading to increase in price of the asset.
Can happen in both bear and bull Chapter - 2 market. Reversals explained in detail. Accumulation: The process by which one builds a position in an asset. Pattern- A chart pattern is a predefined shape that have been historically studied by In this lesson we will be understand what reversal is and how to GUESS it. Traders try to use these previous performance statistics to predict future price movements.
I will be using PA Plus some indicators to find probable reversals. A Head and Shoulders top is considered bearish. There are many such pattern which will be Opinion- PA Traders don't really use indicators but I like to use it for some insight. Fractal: A pattern of Price movement which has occurred earlier and might occur again. Limit Order: Order will execute at a predefined price, if the market riches that price.
A lot of people ask me about the time period a lot of times. PA can be applied to any time frame. From one-minute bars to weekly and monthly charts.
Common time periods are 15min,30 min, 1Hour, 4 Hour, Daily and so on. The interpretation is identical. ATH- All-time highs prices. The only difference is that the battle between buyers and sellers is much larger on the monthly charts than on the intraday.
Average Down: Trying to lower the average entry cost of a position by slowly buying the asset at reducing rates. Higher the time frame, the better, but the principles stay the same. Liquidation--When you are stopped out of your position because the trade went in the Remember, chart patterns perform better on higher time frames.
There is a transition period when the prices move in a horizontal E. This horizontal movement is called consolidation.
Consolidation is likely to favour the previous trend. Bitstamp and sell on Bitfinex. That means it's generally a continuation. Tip - use the indicator tab on Trading view to help you recognise hammer BUT this is no substitute Now that we've completely understood a few important trading jargons, let's begin with Technical for understanding it. I hope it was helpful. Please share it if you liked the thread. We will discuss new Analysis. Technical Analysis is the use of charting techniques to predict future price movement.
It uses previous human reactions to a similar situation to predict future price movements. Only price movement it taken into consideration while using technical analysis. All other information like news, earnings is not taken into consideration. It might come as a surprise to all new traders that news is disregarded while studying charts.
Murphy in his Book on technical analysis explains in detail why it is so. To keep it short, the price discounts everything. Market price of an asset already has taken into. If you want to learn further, ALL trading tools have been discussed in detail on my telegram from beginner to Advanced level. News, information and other analysis available in the public already have affected the price and hence the price is an amalgamation of all the fundamental information.
It's free, it works and simple for anyone to understand. Technical Analysis is the study of price; hence by studying price, ALL the fundamentals have already Love you guys, been taking into consideration. EmperorBTC Hence, we can conclude that all the fundamentals affect the price.
Since the technical analysis is the study of price movement it automatically takes all the fundamentals into consideration. Technical analysis starts and ends with Candlesticks. Stop loss at swing low.
A clear understanding of candlestick is a must to trade. Aggressive entry on volume cross average volume. While the subject of Candlesticks is really vast, there are only a few basics you need to understand. Conservative entry on candle close above Hammer. The candlestick is used instead of a line chart because a simple line chart doesn't tell the movement 4.
Exit on EMA resistance confirmation. I mostly wait for confirmation but traders like at a given period of time whereas a candlestick tells you the high, low, open and close at a given bloodgoodBTC tend to have an aggressive entry. Main Summary of a Hammer. I have written my main point regarding a hammer. Keep them in mind. This can be spotted at potential bottoms. Example below. In my personal view, Tall candles Longer wicks outperform short ones. The basic concept and assumption while studying the candlesticks is that a candle with long tail wick has seen the buyers being successful in pushing the price up by buying at this price level even though there was a significant selling.
A candle with a short body long tail wick denotes supply absorption. Position Addition on EMA break. Similarly, a candle with a long overhead wick is bearish and shows that even though the bulls tried to push the price up the supply was too high for the price to go up. It is still a hammer. The aim after identifying demand and supply zones is to enter at a point which has multiple entry triggers at one point. Candlesticks can be used to find supply and demand pressure, especially in intra-day trading.
I hope this changes how you view and use candlesticks on a daily basis Candlesticks with a long tail wick, about times their body have overcome a big supply zone. This means that below that candle existed a huge supply order which was absorbed. This is generally bullish, means the demand in that zone was able to overcome the supply. Look for candles with a long tail. It should have bounced off of a previous resistance now turned support.
Wait for the price to break a resistance above. Opinion- Many traders believe that Confirmation isn't needed for hammer, however I always look for it. The same principle is applicable with candles with a long overhead wick. This implies that the candle was not able to absorb all the supply above itself, which is generally. We should look for signs of reversal at this level. Look for candle with long overhead wick.
People find it extremely difficult to exit trades and find reversals. We will Learn Reversal Candles to - 2. Wait for previous supply to be broken. Find Change in trend.
We will discuss Hammer in this thread. Share if you find this See pic below for a short entry. Reversal doesn't mean a start of an opposite trend. It means re-evaluation or slow-down of trend.
DON'T take opposite trade on Reversal signs. Take an profits on reversal, not opposite trade. Confirmation - A confirmation in trading is a positive signal to establish a bias for for an entry Example- if the current candle looks bullish a safe entry with confirmation would be when the price on the next candle goes above the highest price of the set bullish candle Retest- After a price breaks a certain resistance it comes back to the point where the resistance was to establish that the resistance has been broken and the same resistance has now been turned into a support for the price structure.
Let us try to understand the trade by using the following concepts of: To illustrate. Reversal here means a change in change or re-evaluation which should 2. Supply Zone make us look for an exit and not an opposite trend.
Break-out 5. Retest 6. How to find a short entry after a supply zone:. Long overhead wick candles generally denote supply. Wait for them to close at same level. Find new support. Wait for it to break. Wait for support to turn into resistance. Enter short trade upon confirmation. Entry Example: To reiterate, the use of supply and demand once mastered is the MOST useful tool to find high probability trade entry.
Most beginners learn it very late hence are unable to identify high probability entry zones. It must be noted that supply and demand zone is not a tool for entering a trade but a tool for identifying the zones and areas of interest for high probability high profit trade. Instead of spending too much time to identify the kind of candle stick that has been printed on a chart, we should rather concentrate on what the candle is trying to say about the demand and candle structure.
As a trader our soul aim is to identify the trend whether the demand and supply is more and enter it Please read this tutorial several times and try to identify the zones on your own on historical charts. Only try to identify the zones finding entries will be taught in the next lessons.
I hope this tutorial was useful. Always here to help. One could easily study the Bitcoin cycle and predict the top on Alts, as seen here. Remember, the Alt cycle follows BTC price cycle. Retest 2. PART 2. Deep Dive into Candlesticks. Part 1. In the previous PDF, we studied:. Demand and Supply Zones. Leverage usage is a function dependent on the Stop loss determined based on TA. I use only technical analysis to determine the stop loss and the leverage multiple shall be determined by it.
But Why risk so little capital? High equity risk trades are historically proven to deplete all capital as explained below. The best traders that I know personally and even myself don't have that high of a hit rate. Then how does such low strike rate lead to profits in the long run? R:R, Stop Loss placements and the use of leverage will be explained in the next threads. Read it several times. Next part of Risk Management to release soon.
Please share the thread to help a fellow trader. In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade. Please share. We understand what reward to risk popularly called risk to reward is. It will be denoted by R:R. We will also try to bust a few myths about R:R and how to avoid losing trades. Before entering a trade, you need to determine 3 things. There could be multiple reasons or a single reason for entry.
Generally, a set of reasons AKA confluence is a higher probability trade and a generally a safer entry. The price in the opposite direction of the trade where the trade is exited, at a loss.
At this level, the reason for the entry becomes invalidated according to TA and the price can then move in the opposite direction, probabilistically. Target is the possible price level that the asset might touch based on previous trends or confluence AND where a possible reversal could occur. Target is the next path of least resistance from where the price might reverse. A combination of the three coming together forms R:R. We will try to understand what really R:R in this thread.
R:R simply is the ratio of the distance between entry and target, and entry and the stop loss. Even Murphy in his book has advocated for the same but in my opinion, it is a wrong benchmark to have.
Sticking to a fixed RR can prevent us from entering a high probability trade at times, eg at confluences. So what is the right way to use R:R and how do traders with low Win rate turn out to be profitable? Profitability depends on 2 factors. R:R and win rate. The formula to calculate the same is as below. Find your win rate. Choose trades with R:R which suits your win rate. Base the above only on TA. Never enter a trade without knowing the target and SL.
Don't get stuck with a fixed R:R. The completes the Risk to reward tutorial. It is a must use to tool to avoid trades that don't suit our win rate. This gives a HUGE trading edge as most of the lower win probability trades can be avoided. We will learn stop loss placement next. Please share if this was useful. Stop Loss is the most important topic to prevent liquidation and avoiding bankruptcy. This is all you need to master stop loss. There are only 2 tools in trading which will prevent you from blowing up your account: 1.
Risk Management 2. In this thread, we will master Stop-Loss, in detail. This is a very bad idea. Stop loss should be based on TA alone. Every setup is different and a fixed SL won't work. Once the reason for the entry has been lost, the trade must be exited. The event at which the reason for entry ceases to exist is the invalidation level.
Entry example: Invalidation Point reached? Always establish the invalidation point before entering a trade. As soon as the invalidation event turns true, EXIT without a second thought.
If the entry was made because of a support being confirmed, but if the support gets broken, the reason for the entry no longer exists and hence, a stop loss must be entered Let us understand placing the stop Loss with the help of few examples. Placing SL during consolidation Break-out. Note- I Place it a little below the invalidation level to prevent stop hunts. Let's try to understand a bit advanced stop loss using -OBV -Volume.
Price goes up, volume doesn't. Price goes down, volume goes up. Price goes up, OBV doesn't. Support is broken. Some traders swear by a strict stop loss order being placed as soon as an entry is placed. The solution to this dilemma is discussed below. I personally exit manually after invalidation is confirmed to prevent SL hunting.
Stop loss cannot be a fixed percentage as all trade setups are different. Stop Loss is nothing but an exit at an invalidation level.
Always have the Stop Loss determined before entering a trade. You don't have to post the SL order, you can exit manually on invalidation to avoid false wicks aka Stop hunting.
Don't be in a rush to move your SL to break-even. This leads to your market participation without any benefit. Every setup needs it's unique SL. Read the charts, adapt to different setups. Practice, Practice, Practice. Hope this helps. Share if you found it useful to help other traders. This is 1st module to the most comprehensive real-world guide to Volume Analysis. Volume is a simple yet most powerful tool.
Please re-tweet so many more can see it and benefit. Price and volume are the only 2 parameters you need to trade successfully. ALL indicators and tools in existence are derived from the above. We will complete the Volume study in 12 modules. In this thread, we will cover the 1st module, consisting of the following topics: 1. Meaning 2. Volume Average 3. Why is volume important-Smart money 5. Volume trends and reversals. It refers to the amount of asset traded over a fixed time.
Purchase and sale of 1 unit is regarded as volume of 1 unit and not 2. Below is an extract from a Forex Trading tutorial where the concept of Total volume is incorrectly explained. On its own, the volume has no use. It's of no use to know that the volume of Bitcoin in the last 24 hours was 1 billion USD. However, when combined with previous volumes and price action, it's helpful in taking a trade. This is explained below.
What does low volume and high volume mean? A low volume refers to a volume lower than the average volume and vice versa for High volume. It refers to the Moving average of the volume calculated on the basis of previous sessions. The average could be of any time period. Smart money are the holders of higher capital and more information. It's generally believed that smart money has access to better analysis and more info, hence the levels that see the higher volume is regarded as an area of interest.
The effects of Volume on price can be understood with the help of the following cheat sheet. We will discuss all 4 situations in detail. We will also study where we can Enter a trade and increase our positions after we have discussed all the 4 scenarios. This kind of uptrend is said to be confirmed by volume. See the chart below, following a down-trend, there is a slight uptrend.
Many traders would assume this to be a reversal. However, this is accompanied by decreasing volume. This proves it to be just a correction and not reversal. Hence, increase in price with a decrease in volume points towards an uptrend not supported by volume. It isn't safe to long this uptrend. This kind of price volume movement denotes a correction in a down-trend rather than a reversal.
When price decreases with increasing volume, the volume here confirms the downtrend. The chart below denotes a short entry and an addition to position upon further break of support. This is a multi-confirmation entry. When the sudden increase in volume leads to a downtrend AND the support zone is broken, this leads to a High volume as well as High momentum entry.
Also see how the position is increased upon breaking of a further support. This decrease in price is not confirmed by volume and hence can be regarded as a correction in uptrend and not confirmation. Notice how the volume decreases upon down-trend and hence this isn't a reversal for a short entry. However the ATH was not accompanied with equally high volume. Notice how the volume at ATH is lower than the average volume.
The Volume at ATH is equal to what it was at levels. It was a warning for MANY for the upcoming dump. Trade entries at Support. A support is confirmed with a volume expansion.
A long entry can be taken here which is generally a high probability trade. To be more sure, you can enter upon break-out from a local swing high as in this case. Notice how there is a sudden volume expansion at the resistance, which the volume rising substantially above the average volume. Here we enter after volume expansion AND re-test for a High probability trade. The short entries can be entered in the similar fashion, it has also been illustrated in case no. It is important to relate the volume to the average volume.
End of module 1. Most of my successful trades were based only on volume analysis. There will be total 12 modules. All the best. A bit complicated, but if you read this thread, you will master it completely for scalping and swing trades. Share it! All new traders need it. Most traders can identity a divergence but don't know how to use it to time the entry. All real-world trades taken because of divergences have been shown below. When price moves in a certain direction, the momentum oscillator too should move in the same direction and manner Eg.
When Price makes a higher high, the momentum oscillator too should make a higher high. This is called convergence. This phenomenon is called Divergence. It occurs because the average change in the lookback period the time period of the oscillator is in a different direction as compared to the price.
A minimum of 4-hour time frame is preferred. Since they may fail very rarely it is better to accompany the entry with further confirmations. Important points. The LOWS of the price and oscillator are not in sync. The price makes a lower low but the oscillator makes a higher low. This means, although the price is decreasing, the overall average rate of change in the chosen period is increasing. Entry using the same chart above. The concept of. Supply absorption candle.
Momentum confirmation. Supply zone re-test. Adding position on re-test confirmation is illustrated in this trade. This means that at the same price levels, the momentum is increasing.
Illustration with a trade example presented below. This means, even though the price is decreasing, the momentum is intact. Illustration of weak divergence presented below. This was one of the most beautiful trades I have ever taken.
Pure price movement. Divergence confirmed. Supply absorbing candle appears. Doji in a down-trend. Bullish kicker, entry made above candle in point 2. I don't trade it -In a weird manner, the price increases, the momentum oscillator value decreases.
This signifies that even at a reducing momentum, there is enough buying interest to push the price up. Explained with a trade setup below. This completes the Part-1 of divergence masterclass. It will change your trading game. Will release Part 2 soon Bearish divergences Please share it to help a fellow trader. We will cover bearish scenarios and shorting. Let's Go! Note- 1. We only look at the value of the Body of the candle and not the wicks.
Bearish Divergence only looks at the Highs. Remember, Bearish divergence is used to find the tops, so look at the Highs only. The price makes a Higher High but the oscillator makes a Lower High. This means that even though the price is moving higher, the average momentum of the lookback period is decreasing. This is a potential top signal. Here is the shame chart explaining the short entry using 1. Short confirmation 2. EMA Support 4. Exit on Support Break Take the time to study it. Notice the volume expansion.
Here the price makes a double top but the oscillator makes a Lower High. This means that at the same price level, the momentum has decreased. This is one of my personal favorite setups. Trade Setup- Using the same chart, a bearish entry is explained when the support line breaks. Notice the use of- 1. Bearish Engulfing 2. Retracement 3. This means that the average momentum isn't ready to go up even as the price goes up.
Simple confirmation break-down setup explained below. This means that the price is going down even after there's an increase in the average momentum in the lookback period. Trade setup. This setup, although did not catch the absolute top, but provided a high-profit short entry.
Notice how the accumulation zone break is used as a short trigger. This completes the last part of the divergence masterclass for RSI.
This is a very powerful and profitable concept. All the Best. Every trader needs it. Open interest is the metric that tells you the number of open derivatives contracts Futures or options. Each contract has 2 sides. Buyer and the seller or longs and shorts. The number of open active trade contracts is called Open Interest.
People often confuse volume and OI. While they are related, they aren't the same. Volume talks about the number of contracts traded during a day. Open Interest is explained below. Open positions. A buying Long and a selling Short side. Hence in one trade, a buyer goes long and the seller goes short. This forms one contract and not two.
This one contract is denoted as 1 Open Interest. OI Calculation. It's not difficult and you can understand it very easily, with some patience. A and B think the price will go up and enter a long of 5 contracts each. C thinks the price will go down and enter a short of 10 contracts. The total contracts open in the market are 10 and hence the Open Interest is On Day 2 A decides to add 2 longs. B decides to close 2 longs. C does nothing. The total open contracts remain the same. Conclusion - OI doesn't change when contacts are transferred.
It changes only when newer contracts are created amongst the participants or be new players. Day 3 D, a new trader enters the market with 10 short Entries.
A increases his long entry by There has to be a long for every short, hence derivatives trading is often called a zero-sum game. OI will increase only when new contracts are created in the market. Like volume explained in the chart below , OI has no use on its own.
It's just data. However, when studied along with price, it becomes one of the most important tools for leverage trading, ever. I always use OI data for swing trading. Explained Below. The new contracts opened are added to the existing OI and that becomes the new OI value. Volume, on the other hand, is calculated per day and is not continuous. Let us now understand the 4 different scenarios in open interest and how to use them: 1. Price goes up OI goes up A scenario where the price of the asset and the OI increases simultaneously is called a long Build up.
Here the market participants are entering into new contracts and the long sentiment is stronger, pushing the prices higher. This happens because Long previously entered are taking profits i. Contracts are being closed, reducing the OI. This mostly occurs after the price has seen a substantial rise See the chart above and is looking for a retracement or a Reversal.
The sentiment to open up a short trade is stronger. New contracts are being formed and hence the OI is increasing. Short entry scenario explained. This means that the people who had entered into a short position are closing their entries. This generally occurs after the price has made a substantial correction. The Open interest data when studied with Price movement, becomes a very strong indicator to be used with Price Action Trading.
Emperor btc trading manual pdf. Master Class by EmperorBTC (My Crypto Hero)
You can enhance your support and resistance zones using Ichimoku clouds. A bit convoluted for beginners but is a good tool. I will be providing my Bitcoin settings for Ichimoku in future.
The above topics are more than enough to get you started. There are advanced took that I used, like Open interest, Volume profile, funding rates, However, I suggest mastering the above topics and only then move to such topics.
Take it slow, build a strong foundation. Here is my recommended reading list. With real world examples from Bitcoin price movements. This is everything that you need to master it. This should speak enough for its importance. Focus of Study. Understanding Support and Resistance 2. Identifying and drawing a valid Support and Resistance line 3.
Nature of Support and Resistance when it Breaks 4. How institutional traders stop out retail traders. Stop loss hunting 7. Showcasing support and resistance during a downtrend Support and Resistance can be categorized as 1. Trending support and resistance Trend-lines 3. Horizontal lines denoting a price of either support of resistance. We will be studying these horizontal lines in this module.
Figure 2. Illustration of a horizontal resistance line Figure 3 Illustration of a horizontal support line Definition. A support line indicates a price where the buying pressure is more than the selling pressure, acting as a base for an upward bounce of price. To elaborate, the demand is greater than the supply at these levels hence an upward move in price is generally probable.
Drawing a support line. A good starting point is to zoom out on the time frame that you're trading and try to touch as many lower points as logically possible. The support should be easily visible upon minor observation and you shouldn't have to hunt or look hard for them. The o line doe n ha e o be e fec l aligned.
We are mostly looking for zones rather than a perfect straight price line. The examples below illustrate the support line overlapping with candles and wicks or not perfectly touching the candles. In both these examples, the support line is valid.
Figure 5 Imperfect but a valid support line Resistance Resistance line indicates the price where the selling pressure is higher than the buying pressure. To elaborate, the supply is greater than the demand which pulls the price lower. The e a good obabili of ice e acing f om hi ice line. Just like support line, zooming out on the time frame that you're trading and try to touch as many high points.
The resistance should be easily visible upon observation and you shouldn't have to hunt or look hard for them. Examples of Resistance lines below. Figure 6 Resistance line example ObservationThe chart above also shows a vital concept of fake-breakout, breakout, retrace and confirmation.
It will be explained later in detail. Understanding Breakdown and Breakouts A Breakout occurs when the resistance line is tested several times, leading to an increased demand in that price zone. This increase of demand leads to a breakout. Opinion- The more times a resistance is tested, the weaker it becomes. Figure 7 illustration of a break-out Breakdown- It is when the support zone is tested too many times, leading to an increase is supply at that price point, which leads to lowering of price i.
PIC Opinion. The more times we test a support, the weaker it becomes. See pic Below Figure 8 illustration of a break-down What happens if a Support or Resistance line breaks? They start acting in the opposite nature. A support line becomes a resistance and a resistance becomes a support.
Resistance lines, when crossed, become new support, and the cycle repeats until the trend breaks. Study this chart carefully to see how Resistance level 1, when broken at 2, after formation of a new resistance at 3, becomes a new support at 4. Figure 9 Resistance lines becoming a new support, until a breakdown This cycle continuous till the breakdown. Take some time to understand the above graph. Uses of Support and resistance.
Intuitively the use of the support line would be to enter a long when the prices bounce off the support line and that of the resistance line would be to go short when the price pulls back from resistance. However, real world trading isn the following his simple and he abo e sage needs nders anding of 1.
Breakouts, Break-down 2. Re-tests 4. Confirmations 5. A Breakout leads to a strong upwards rally in price because of a huge demand at the resistance zone. Long at the Break-out. The exact opposite is true for breakdown, which leads to a big pullback in price. Short at the break-down. See pic below for Break-out and Break-Down Advanced uses of Support and resistance in determining high probability entry.
Below I illustrate the advanced practices used by seasoned traders to determine high probability entries for profits. However, they are easy to understand upon a repeated reading. Here we will study 1. Fake Breakouts and Fake Breakdowns 2. Stop loss hunting Study of the above will help us understand how institutional traders stop out the retail traders and provide us with a probable solution against stop loss hunting. A very common problem that retail traders face is being stopped out.
Let us understand stop loss hunting in detail. Short hunting at resistance The red line denotes the resistance line. At Point A, few retail traders will short it thinking that the price will go down at the resistance.
But the price has a small breakout out. Triggering the stop loss of the people who went short. This is a fake out as the price then reverses at the resistance. Even though the price goes down, the stop loss gets hit. Here the trader loses money even after being right. This is short hunting. With the same chart, we will study long hunting at the resistance.
The wick crosses above the resistance line, most retail traders will long here, calling it a breakout. The price is then reversed. Stopping out all the longs. This is long hunting at the resistance.
The same exact stop loss hunting is done at the support. Stop loss hunting for longs and shorts at the support can be seen here. This is illustrated in the charts below. First solution is to look for the following 1. Follow through The process of Confirmation and Retest can be used for both long and short entries 1. Confirming the Breakout 2. Confirming the breakdown 3. Confirming the support 4. Confirming the resistance This chart explains the Re-test and confirmation of support In this chart, the support is established.
Then the price comes back to be retested and the support is held and confirmed. This confirms the support line. Leading to an upwards rally. In the same manner, a breakout from a resistance can be confirmed as shown in this chart. The resistance is broken. The price comes back to confirms the breakout and is confirmed. On confirmation, a high probability long entry is made.
See the example below for entering a long after a bounce at support and break of resistance. The same concepts can be applied for going short at resistance or breakdowns. The above concepts will help all beginners from stop getting hunted by an institutional order block.
This module has covered ALL the information you need about horizontal support and resistance in great depth. I will share trend-line support and resistance and Supply and Demand zone tutorials soon. Study it multiple times and you should be good to go.
This is an attempt to present you with my understanding of the previous weeks price movement. This will help you establish a weekly understanding of the price and make positional trades, if you're not actively trading. I have tried to analyze each available metric and give a commentary on it. This report has been designed to feel like a fast sprint with a continuous burst of knowledge. Short but intense with knowledge.
I hope you continue to be this supportive and I keep on presenting you with a highquality Bitcoin Price Report. I have nothing else to offer other than my sincere hard work and honesty. Area of Study 1. Introduction to the Great Resistance A. Defining the premise B. Study in previous and current break-out attempts C. Conditions for a potential break-out D. Combined resistance with the liquidity zone 2.
Establishing Support and Resistance levels A. Prospective movements study A. Establishing prospective moves B. Trade set-ups 5. Bitcoin Price cycle study A. Current cycle defined B. Study of the current institutional phase C. Confirmation of an incoming all time high D. New parabolic advance target Nothing mentioned in this report is a financial advice. Bitcoin price cycles denoting the current area of study.
For the purposes of understanding the current price movement, we will be restricting our area of study to the above-mentioned part of the current bitcoin cycle.
This area of study will be used to find the zones of support and resistance for a prospective movements and trade positions. We will however study the whole of the historical bitcoin cycle in brief at the end to Report to Establish the following: -The current level of accumulation.
This first issue has been named The great resistance because we currentl sit at a downtrend line which has decided the phase of bitcoin price movement for the last 28 months. I will talk in-depth about the history, importance and the role of this down-trend line to make it clear how vital a role it plays in deciding out next trades and perhaps the upcoming price cycle.
Illustration of the Down-trend line originating since Dec The first attempt to change the market structure took place in between June and July of We managed to cross this downtrend line a couple of times but never closed above it. This ended up being a failed attempt. We managed to cross it once but never got above it substantially. We currently are at a decisive pivot. The previous weekly just closed slightly below this line and we currently sit just above it.
Weekly close above this down-trendline AND 2. The next weekly candle crossing the highest point of the previous weekly candle. Note- A high momentum break-o t on t need a re-test of the downtrend line. The down-trend resistance is not the only thing we need to pay attention to. There exists a time-tested liquidity pool between and zone. This leads to further pressure on the upward movement of the price. The price currently must surpass both the down-trend line as well as the multi-year supply zone.
A liquidity pool is the zone where institutional investors, giant holdings and other large stack holders have placed their sale orders. This can be ascertained from the volume profile and the orderbook heatmap.
We will do an in-depth analysis of the volume profile and the order-book heat-map in the next issue. Apart from the levels mentioned above, on the monthly time frame, we observe the following The Horizontal resistances: Being the pivot high of June-July Has acted has monthly support thrice and once as a resistance. Acted as resistance from Mid Nov to Dec end Acted as support from Mid Nov to Dec end Acted as resistance in April Lower supports will be discussed in the next issue.
The price has been in the range of for the past 9 months, except for an inorganic fall below the lower range for 18 days. March , 2. This fall only lasted for about 3 weeks and the price was back in the range.
The above-mentioned fall took place after a formation of complex Head and Shoulders One bigger pattern containing a smaller pattern within itself The bearish target of this pattern was overextended significantly which is normal in such high-volume long-term complex pattern.
After the Breakdown from the complex head and shoulders, which have seen a throwback to the neckline levels which proves the movement to be within the normal market conditions. This neckline at is now acting as a support on the daily time frame. The current immediate and composite resistance that we face is the low of the candles forming the top of the head and shoulders top. This has been marked in the chart. We now await the breaking of the above resistance to check if we can reach the upper range of the channel.
If we don't, it means the channel has squeezed down and the upper range of will reduce to Note- An inorganic price doe n mean manip la ion I mean ha al ho gh he price i falling the classical chart patterns, the targets and ranges are over-extended. The fall from the complex head and shoulders saw such an over-extended target due to the Covid outbreak news. On the lower side, we wait to see if the neckline throwback support at as turned into a base.
It is likely that we might test it in future, someday. If it holds, a long entry would be profitable. If it doesn't, we will see a price consolidation at those levels before a dump. This consolidation will give enough time and opportunity to short it.
The 4-hour chart is very popular with most swing traders and hence its study is useful, always. The base however is maintained beautifully. Commentary- The previous resistance at has now turned into a tested support. An accumulation above this level will only be bullish for the price. A break of , if it happens will probably get us back to in the short term. Study- The 4-hour candles have tried to breach the downtrend line thrice.
In the first 2 attempts, it beached the downtrend line but failed to make it a support upon retest. Currently we sit in between the downtrend line and the upper resistance. The price trying to establish a support at Commentary- The current price action confirms again that the downtrend line is a major resistance.
We wait for a clean support to be established on the downtrend line. It should be well accepted that a safe long Entry can be taken once the support at the downtrend line is established, as breaking of the upper range will then be only a matter of time. The longer we stay in this range, the most bullish the consolidation gets. However, We have failed twice in the past at these levels and should also be looking to enter a safe short entry once the downtrend line is established as a resistance again.
The first target will be for a short entry after a clean break of the downtrend line. On the long side, we have the following movement in play. The price is held above the downtrend line. This will lead to influx of demand after a retest and we will at least move towards the next supply liquidity zone towards The above movement will payout if We stay above the downtrend like. Or We retest it after a price drop and bounce back, forming at least a temporary support. Leading to a sustained accumulation above the downtrend line, leading to a run till levels.
What we seek is an organic price fluctuation which follows the principles of price movement. If we are unable to sustain above the downtrend line, we will be entering a short trade. This will happen upon a confirmed high volume and high momentum break of the downtrend line which is acting as a temporary support.
The first short entry target would be A small bounce till the trend-line is expected from this level as has acted as a resistance turned support earlier. Once is broken, we will be looking at a short entry target of , which is the support prior to A combined summary of the trades we will take once the direction is confirmed by the resistance we face. Long Entry If the downtrend line is broken and price sustains above, will enter a long Entry with 10, the next liquidity zone as our target.
Short entry. If the downtrend line stays intact and we reject from the current levels with confirmation, we will short with as first target and as the second target if is broken with momentum.
Accumulation 2. Uptrend 3. Retracements Accumulation is a period of consolidation, a resting phase where both the buyers and the sellers are trying to get the stock at their desired price. The price moves in a tight range. Uptrend is when we Breakout of the accumulation, the demand for the asset increases substantially and We see an increase in price.
Retracement is when the people who entered earlier start taking profit, leading to a fall in price of the asset. The chart above shows the market cycle of Bitcoin which several such cycles starting and ending. Opinion- In the latest cycle which began in the beginning of , we are seeing the second phase of accumulation.
The assumption with Bitcoin price cycles has been that we need to make a new market high to confirm a new market cycle post accumulation. However, in my opinion, after the influx of mainstream attention, there was an unprecedent inflow of institutional as well as retail capital. What's different about this market cycle is that we say a second wave of uptrend, beginning Feb This hasn't been seen in the market cycles earlier.
In the current cycle, it is my opinion that after a 2nd uptrend and 2nd retracements in the same market cycle, we're also seeing a sign of 2nd accumulation. The 2nd accumulation level is higher than what is was earlier in the same cycle. This is institutional accumulation. This proves the following 1. Institutional investors are re-accumulating at a higher price since the accumulation range has seen a higher low formed in the cycle.
We have already made a bottom for this cycle and are now in a phase of institutional accumulation. A Breakout to new all times high is only a matter of time. We observe the building of institutional supply bloc across all phases. Notice how this supply bloc intersects with all the phases except for the parabolic advance. The accumulation zone has already seen a Break-out, with a new phase forming which can in my opinion be termed as institutional accumulation phase.
The big money in coming in, which would eventually lead to the next parabolic advance. This will be confirmed upon the current accumulation phase crossing the institutional supply block and closing above it. A sustained consolidation above this phase will confirm the exhaustion of supply in this range, leading to a new parabolic advance. The current institutional accumulation zone needs to just cross and consolidate above the supply bloc to create a new all time high.
The above reasons in my opinion point towards institutional accumulation taking place. We have already seen an accumulation in the current market cycle and now entered a re-accumulation zone with higher prices. This is the zone were the institutional money is accumulating before a new all-time high. Previous price movement and linear growth percentage.
Combined log percentage increase with the increase in market cap. Expected shift from the value of fiat market to Bitcoin. According to my opinion, we are likely to see Bitcoin achieve a target price of to by the end of This is far conservative than the targets estimated by many existing models.
Being an independent options writer, I had the luxury of freedom and decided to study it. After a few months of intense study and research, I decided to devote my entire life to it.
Day and night. Blood and soul. Studying it, stacking it, trading it 24x7. I cannot now thing of doing anything else. The rewards have been nothing short of a generational wealth. This was an attempt to share my miniscule knowledge of trading and understanding the possible Bitcoin Price movements in future. This is the first report being published by me. I thank you for the support and the love shown, encouraging me to deliver this.
I am nothing without the readers who choose to invest their time in listening to my mediocre opinions. I would like to thank William R Thomas, a fellow options trader for his insight in the cycles and positional play. WilliamRThomas Hoping for many such publications in future.
Feel free to contact me. Candlesticks can be used to find supply and demand pressure, specially in intra-day trading. I hope this changes how you view and use candlesticks on a daily basis. A thread. This means that below that candle existed a huge supply order which was absorbed. This is generally bullish, means the demand in that zone was able to overcome the supply. Look for candles with a long tail. It should have bounced off of a previous resistance now turned support.
Wait for the price to break a resistance above. This implies that the candle was not able to absorb all the supply above itself, which is generally bearish. We should look for signs of reversal at this level. Look for candle with long overhead wick. Wait for previous supply to be broken.
See pic below for a short entry. Trading is easy if we stick to the basics and keep things simple. Stick to the study of price, everything else will follow. First 3 years were spent in blowing up my account several times. Here are the 10 best lessons I can share with you. You should't be trading if you don't have a system which has been back tested for at least a few years worth of data or as long as the asset has existed Back testing is easy and anyone can do it manually.
Back-test it on the asset of your interest as every asset is different. A lessons from Jack Schwager that stuck with me. Your system should have an edge. Relying only on money management won't work. You need an asymmetric bet. A low probability system won't work in the long run, even with godly money management. Can you consistently win at Russian roulette with good money management? The answer is obviously no. Gambling is a low portability bet. Money management can't earn you consistently with a low probability system.
There is no room for hard-work in trading. Explanation- Trading should be calm, simple and a waiting game. Your system should tell you the entry and exit. You should not be breaking a sweat. If your system isn't there yet, don't trade. Use hard-work to practice, train and improvise. The actual act of performance should be easy.
All of the above is easy. Patience to execute and wait for an entry is difficult. Your system won't work all the time and one failure will make your distrust it. Stick to your system. If your system had been back-tested, paper-traded, stick to it.
There is no single system that works. BUILD a one that works for you, and works good enough. Check list for entering a trade -Your system should clearly give an entry -You have a predetermined reason for exit -All possible support resistances should be clearly known.
If the above things aren't in place, Don't enter a trade. Any other entry is probably a gamble. Before you start trading, paper trade the live market for a few months. There is no rush. You are not losing out on anything. Before you start day trading, trade spot for at least a month. It gets you used to the system and the volatility without the evils of leverage. If you're leverage trading, a stop loss is a must. Have a look at this chary from 29th November No one expected this kind of range.
Several of my friends who got in the crypto bull run bus were liquidated. No stop loss is a quick passage to liquidation. Most difficult but important lesson. Try learning the art, not the recipe. Most new traders want to learn a method, a trick or a strategy.
This won't ever work in the long run as the market changes. I can't tell you how many times I've to tweak my system.. At the cost of being trolled, I remember a scene from Breaking bad. Gus fring is going to kill Pinkman and WW. Victor has been watching them cook and can take over. WW reminds Victor that he won't be able to cook if.. This saved them Pinkman and WW.
From the Basics. Give it time to build a solid foundation. All indicators except volume related are derived from price. A study of price movement is superior to anything else. Be fluid with your bias. Legends like Peter Brandt are trolled for changing their opinions and bias very often. Strong price opinions have no place in trading. You need to learn that trends changes very often. Have strong principles, loose opinions. Today itself I felt like BTC could breakdown to But as time progressed, I made a long Entry at Fluidity in bias brings you frequent opportunities.
Don't ever hold onto a losing trade if there are no signs of reversal. Hopes and prayers don't work in trading. Get out of a losing trade ASAP. Market will give you enough opportunities. Change with the trend. I have never been able to catch the top and the bottom and have no interest nor the ability to do so. Most amount of money is made during the movement between the top and the bottom.
Waiting for confirmations and taking lower profits will yield better result. This lowers the number of entries that you will find but increases the profit probability of your trade. Many traders better than me could teach you something a lot better, but this is what comes to my mind right now.
I hope this was worth your time. All the best trading. YOU have to plan your entry, position size and invalidation points. When learning, trade a lot. A LOT. Trade with the trend, as many times a possible. Your methods need real market testing. Trade more, let the market give you feedback, as much as possible. The only way to get better at free-throws is to keep practicing. Trading is the most rewarding profession, ever.
Journalise all trade. Take notes and keep learning. I have made tutorials for all topics here. It works. This is the most comprehensive real-world guide to Support and Resistance.
This is everything that you need to master it. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. In this post I am compiling all his notes please read these notes with patience. Twitter Thread 1. Both these tools are FAR more complicated than they sound. Read, understand and ONLY then trade. The catch is, you need a plan. Bitcoin Trading Master Class 1. Bitcoin Trading Master Class 2. Master Class on Stop Loss.
Trading Manual. Price Action Trading. Capital Preservation. Fibonacci Trading Master Class. Advanced Fibonacci Concepts. Market Structure — Basics. Introduction to Supply and Demand Trading. Investing VS Trading. RSI Divergence.
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